30 maggio 2026 · Aggiornato 30 maggio 2026
For more than two decades, the global economy operated under what seemed like a reassuring assumption: globalization would continue to advance without interruption. Companies manufactured in Asia, sold in Europe, sourced energy wherever it was cheapest, and moved goods with an efficiency that appeared irreversible. Today, however, that era suddenly feels increasingly distant. Not because global trade has come to a halt, but because it is no longer politically neutral. Every trade route and every international partnership are once again shaped by the geopolitical balance between nations.
The numbers clearly illustrate this shift in paradigm. The World Trade Organization forecasts global trade growth of just 1.9% for 2026, a sharp slowdown compared to the 4.6% recorded in 2025, while any further escalation in geopolitical tensions could reduce growth even further, down to 1.4%. Behind these percentages lies a far deeper transformation: international trade is no longer driven solely by economic efficiency, but increasingly by considerations of strategic security and political reliability.
This is where the true core of the issue emerges. Western companies are gradually replacing the concept of “globalization” with that of “geopolitical reliability.” It is no longer sufficient to determine where production costs are lower; what matters most is identifying where it is politically safe to conduct business. As a result, the phenomenon known as friendshoring — the relocation of operations to countries considered political allies — is accelerating rapidly. India, Vietnam, Mexico, and Southeast Asia are attracting growing shares of international investment precisely because they are perceived as more stable alternatives to today’s global hotspots of tension.
For Europe, the issue is even more delicate. An economy heavily dependent on exports is inevitably exposed to international shocks. One only needs to observe what is happening along major energy routes or in trade relations between Washington and Beijing: logistics costs rise immediately, industrial lead times become longer, and uncertainty surrounding investments increases. According to the International Monetary Fund, structural economic fragmentation could lead to significant losses for European economies precisely because of their high degree of trade openness.
The uncomfortable truth, perhaps, is that geopolitics has become the new invisible board of directors for global companies. It determines energy costs, supply chain stability, market access, and even industrial competitiveness itself. While many businesses still interpret international crises as temporary events, the markets are already signaling something very different. Instability is no longer an exception within the global system. It has become the system itself.
